Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan: prediction, tale of the tape and odds

Main event of Saturday night into Sunday at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, at lightweight and over five rounds: Brazil's Renato Moicano, ranked 12th in the division, takes on Australia's Tom Nolan, ranked 14th. On one side a fixture of the rankings for years, on the other a 26-year-old who arrives on a three-fight winning streak.

Renato Moicano, 37, has 21 wins, 7 losses and 1 draw. He is an American Top Team jiu-jitsu fighter who works his jab before looking for the clinch and the takedown, and he has eleven submissions to his name. He submitted Chris Duncan in the 2nd round last April, but the two fights before that were defeats: a unanimous decision against Beneil Dariush in June 2025, and a submission loss to Islam Makhachev in January 2025, for the belt.

Tom Nolan, 26, has 11 wins and 1 loss. He stands 1.91 m, which is very tall for the division, he is a southpaw, and he really makes use of that height: a long jab, knees in the clinch, and very heavy work once he gets on top. Unanimous decision against Fares Ziam in June, a 1st-round submission of Charlie Campbell in September 2025, unanimous decision against Viacheslav Borshchev in February 2025.

1) Size: 1.91 m and 185 cm of reach for Nolan, 1.80 m and 183 cm for Moicano. A southpaw that long is exactly the profile that stops a jab from setting its rhythm. 2) The five rounds: Moicano has headlined several times before, Nolan never, and his toughest round against Ziam was the third. 3) Eleven years apart: 37 against 26, and the Brazilian has lost two of his last three fights.

Tom Nolan. The Australian has youth, length and the power advantage; and when Moicano cannot keep the fight at the end of his jab, he falls back on wrestling, which is exactly where Nolan has been formidable for the past year.